Now there's this: the Acer president criticizing Vista.
This is a sign of the times. At first, poor adoption was limited to the tech-savvy, it has now grown to the non tech-savvy, as well as business partners of Microsoft. Despite what Microsoft may claim, the fact that most major vendors continue to offer XP as an option speaks poorly of Microsoft's new OS.
It is no surprise that businesses are going to wait a long time before deploying Vista as well.
Even though Microsoft continues to make money whether XP or Vista is sold, it is a very poor sign when your aging, five year old OS is doing better than your latest OS. Remember, we're talking about a purely software company, not a hardware or service company. And also remember that they had five years to develop this software. And that Windows and Office are the only two product lines that make Microsoft money. I hope you're still comfortable holding Microsoft stock after reading that.
I might not know much about developing software, but this group took five years to develop something. At the very least it should be better than what they already had.
A few points come to mind:
- Complacence: This mirrors the Firefox -- Internet Explorer story. When Internet Explorer captured too much of the market, they grew complacent. What Firefox did to Internet Explorer is being done to Vista by Windows XP (and Mac OS, and Linux).
- Talk is Cheap: No amount of marketing can sell crap. My dentist (and he is a venerable 60 year old) is not a computer geek. In his words, "...you can put lipstick on a pig, but nobody's going to buy it..." He was talking about Windows Vista. Techy customers are quite jaded when it comes to the numerous Microsoft announcements, especially after years of product announcements that are just talk. Now even the lay customers are seeing through the hype.
- DRM: It is difficult to say how much this is a backlash against DRM, but clearly it plays a part. Vista drivers have to rewritten from scratch because of the DRM. As a result, XP has better hardware support than Vista. And techy customers loath the Vista DRM.
- Vendors' Misfortune: For hardware vendors, the only non-Microsoft option is Linux. Apple is absolute about refusing to let OS X run on non-Apple hardware: it is even enforced in the Mac OS X EULA. So for hardware vendors Windows XP and Linux are the only options. Dell already sells machines pre-installed with Ubuntu, and if you have noticed, their Ubuntu product lines are increasing.
- Microsoft Lacks Options: Unlike the Windows ME debacle, Microsoft doesn't have a second OS line that it can rely on. Windows ME was also a train wreck, but it took less time to develop. When Microsoft realized that it was a disaster, they were able to repackage the NT kernel in Windows XP. Right now, I am not aware of a second product line that can take this slack. In effect, vendors falling back on Window XP shows that everyone is looking for the second line. Windows XP is now saving two train-wrecks worth of customers: Windows ME and Windows Vista.
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6 comments:
Interesting comments. Most of your points about Vista in comparison to XP/Mac OS/Linux are correct (as usual), but I do think your long-term forecasting is wrong.
Look at the marketing of Vista from Microsoft - their launch was corporate first and foremost, then personal computing. If you look at the fountainhead of sales it will always be the corporate world that Microsoft caters to and needs.
This is from a Globe and Mail article http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070725.wgtingram26/BNStory/Technology
"Although some of the complaints from Acer and others may be an attempt to blame Microsoft for their own shortcomings, the reality is that Vista is not dramatically better than XP, and so many customers may feel less than compelled to upgrade, particularly if XP is performing well.
That said, Windows Vista is almost certain to become the default PC operating system over the next several years, as users and businesses upgrade their computers (and Microsoft phases out support for XP, which it says it will do next year).
The only question now is how fast or slow that upgrade process will be, and at the moment it seems to be slower than even Microsoft expected."
For example, I just recently was talking with my professor when he asked for advice on which OS to get on his Tablet PC - XP or Vista. I had initially advised XP until he mentioned that the University will be "upgrading" to Vista in stages for Engineering. So, since he already has machines at home on XP I changed my opinion to Vista Business - it will inevitably be the operating OS on campus by decades close.
Microsoft is a titan that rolls along regardless of its (many) mistakes and failures. However, it will slow (slightly :)) once "software as a service" takes off. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070727.wgtmicrosoft27/BNStory/Technology/home
Shiyam, I agree with your view that Microsoft's Titanic (pun intended) power will go a long distance in pushing Vista out.
There are three things that I really, highly doubt:
1. Support for XP ending next year. Remember, you can still buy a new computer with Windows XP. Look at Microsoft's support strategy with Windows 2000. If Microsoft summarily drops support for XP next year, expect a giant customer backlash.
2. Vista is certain to become the default PC OS. The same could have been said about Windows ME, but customers could not be convinced to install it. As soon as XP came, ME customers jumped ship. If the uptake of an OS is truly horrendous, then Microsoft has basically two options: (a) Assume things are fine, and wait. This has not worked till now. Customers have convinced vendors to install XP on new boxes. (b) Fight it somehow. This involves giant ad campaigns, press releases saying that XP support will be dropped soon. It should typically involve talk of a new OS, but that is very difficult at this point. Still, there are press releases about Windows 7.0.
My guess is Microsoft is following the (b) strategy right now. Strategy (a) is doomed to failure.
3. Vista was about corporates. All of Vista was about personal consumers. There is almost nothing on the Vista spec sheet that appeals to corporates. The big list of features are: Aero, the new shell, the sidebar, IE 7.0, Media Player, Calendar, DVD maker, Photo centre, Parental controls, Mobility centre, speech, .... The only things that corporates might like are: Shadow copy (backups), Meeting centre (collaboration) and Updates. But this won't matter to corporates, since most IT departments have already rolled out their own backups, updates.
Assuming all that is still false, and Vista is really for corporates: then it is a bigger failure, since corporate adoption for vista is zero, and most IT departments are certain about waiting at least a year before rolling in Vista.
The final point is that a lot of subscription based corporate customers are choosing to continue with XP. The cost is not an issue to them.
Well seems like we have an argument going!
First, you need some background on my co-op history: last term I worked for Cognos Inc. [www.cognos.com; Business Intelligence & Performance Management]. This term at the Microsoft information session I was not only impressed by the scope of opportunities buy won my very own Microsoft Streets and Trips with GPS via raffle (what luck!, but the Evil Empire did not seduce me). I know through my older brother [UW Alum '02, Computer Engineering] people who actually work at Microsoft in Seattle and fellow co-op students who described their experience.
As I attend the University of Waterloo (1st Year, Honours, Undergraduate, Electrical Engineering) I'm in the heart of RIM turf [Blackberry, maybe one day soon the joint maker of Appleberry - an iPhone Blackberry hybrid].
So, what I'm saying is that I may have a better perspective on the corporate side of things. Who knows?
But here goes my counter-argument:
"For its part, Microsoft maintains that Vista is one of its most successful software launches, and that with 40 million copies sold, the new version of Windows is "on track to be the fastest-selling operating system in Microsoft's history."
1. Support for XP ending next year.
It won't end in the near future; it'll be back supported till the next decade and longer. If Microsoft as such doesn't support, i.e. provide SP kits as Web 2.0 reaches maturity I'm sure there will be workarounds. However, the optimal question is if XP will become "Robin" to Vista's "Batman" or if XP stagnates growth of Vista adaptation.
And, by the way, saying that Mac OS / Linux / Unix will significantly encroach on MS OS Market share is a pipe dream. Each OS unto its' own core -- Apple Mac OS will grow as fruits ought to {slowly but steadily}, Linux powers Google aspirations/NASA Supercomputers/... and will be a powerful ever growing niche, and Unix & Servers/Workstations will go hand in hand.
The running joke is that Vista is Mac OS 'Windowized' with a slight dash of innovation.
2. Vista is certain to become the default PC OS, but what happened to ME will not happen to Vista.
- ME was vastly inferior to XP; can you truly say that Vista is vastly (or "horrendously") inferior to XP ?
- Do you really think that Microsoft will let Vista whimper out like they did ME? After MS has invested 5 plus years and multiple millions of dollars in Vista; think of scope of lost work hours and productivity!
Windows 7.0? Surely you jest! Of course, it will come along the pipe as surely as the Sun rises in the East, but to pine for 7.0 before Vista's first patch is released? Before even the one year mark {January 30, 2007, Worldwide Release)? Come now!
3. "Vista was about corporates. All of Vista was about personal consumers."
From Wikipedia:
"Microsoft's primary stated objective with Windows Vista, however, has been to improve the state of security in the Windows operating system.[4] One common criticism of Windows XP and its predecessors has been their commonly exploited security vulnerabilities and overall susceptibility to malware, viruses and buffer overflows. In light of this, Microsoft chairman Bill Gates announced in early 2002 a company-wide 'Trustworthy Computing initiative' which aims to incorporate security work into every aspect of software development at the company. Microsoft stated that it prioritized improving the security of Windows XP and Windows Server 2003 above finishing Windows Vista, thus delaying its completion.[5]"
My friend, one does not delay a product to ensure corporate security for a OS meant for personal computing. What do you think is easier - making sure your moneyed Corps’ are quasi-satisfied about what they require and then fixing up the personal computing side of things or the other way around?
Again from the holy source that is Wiki (editing for speed reading):
"Windows Vista Service Pack 1 (SP1) is currently in development. Microsoft is planning to release SP1 alongside Windows Server 2008 in the second half of 2007,with a beta later this year.
Microsoft is known to be planning to include the following changes in SP1:
• Improvements to Group Policy management tools.
• Performance improvements with Windows Disk Defragmenter that are also slated for Server 2008.
• New security APIs for the benefit of antivirus software that currently relies on the unsupported practice of patching the kernel (see Kernel Patch Protection).
• A new version of Windows Installer, version 4.1.[44]
Users will be able to change the default desktop search program to one provided by a third party instead of the Microsoft desktop search program that comes with Windows Vista. Third-party desktop search programs will be able to seamlessly tie in their services into the operating system.
• Support for 802.11n.
• Terminal Services can connect to an existing session.
• IPv6 over VPN connections.
Reports from various sources have suggested that SP1 will include a kernel that will be up-to-date with the version to be shipped with Windows Server 2008.
A newer version of Windows Media Center is under development, but whether this will be included with the service pack, or be released separately, has not been clarified by Microsoft."
Closing points:
You’re right about the fact that multi-nationals already: Shadow copy (backups), Meeting centre (collaboration) and Updates. Your right that "But this won't matter to corporates, since most IT departments have already rolled out their own backups, updates." It shouldn't either. An Operating System from a Corporations' perspective is functional for a limited scope of tasks on the employee scale {mostly to do with, again, personal computing, i.e. making an employee more satisfied and productive} but extremely crucial from a larger IT perspective in this day and age. Corporate Backups: VM Ware / Liutilities; collaborations: WebEx and multiple other providers; Updates? What do you mean? Every day at Cognos I received emails on Oracle / Microsoft / IBM / SAP / VMWare / Internal software updates [you just end up just creating filters in MS Outlook]. When a company uses MS Exchange Server for email then the interaction with predominant MS OS will always be a key factor.
“Assuming all that is still false, and Vista is really for corporates: then it is a bigger failure, since corporate adoption for vista is zero, and most IT departments are certain about waiting at least a year before rolling in Vista.” A year to year roll out in corporate culture is the norm; it takes time, effort, energy and perseverance to tidy up MS Software (ala IE 7 adoption … a work in progress). At Cognos and other companies a single floor in a 9 floor building may have all the Operating Systems you could name, but each will have a purpose underlying it. In my humble opinion, Microsoft Vista will, as days turn to weeks to months to years, finds its own calling in the workplace, home and retail.
This debate rages on the Web; be sure to check out:
http://techrepublic.com.com/5208-12844-0.html?forumID=102&threadID=224978&messageID=2253355
Hope you respond soon! Now back to studying for Finals. ece100 z Electric!
Cheers, ssp.
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